2024 Dunkley By-election

Dunkley, VIC

Updated: Thu, 21 Mar 2024 12:26:40 PM AEDT

Dunkley (VIC)

Enrolment:113,432
Turnout:83.79%
Informality:4.14%

Two candidate preferred (TCP) summary for Dunkley (VIC)
Candidate	Votes
CONROY, Nathan	43093
BELYEA, Jodie	48019

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

Notes:

Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
The term 'Previous election' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
These results are final.

Two candidate preferred (TCP) for Dunkley (VIC)
Candidate	Party	Votes	Margin	This election (%)	Previous election (%)	Swing (%)	Status
CONROY, Nathan	Liberal	43,093	-4,926	47.30	43.73	+3.57
BELYEA, Jodie	Australian Labor Party	48,019	4,926	52.70	56.27	-3.57	Elected

This table provides the number of first preference votes received for all candidates in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of first preference votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

These results are final.

First preference count for the division of Dunkley (VIC)
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Swing (%)	Status
CONROY, Nathan	Liberal	35,746	39.23	+6.73
CURRIE, Bronwyn	Animal Justice Party	2,818	3.09	+0.99
ABRAHAM, Chrysten	Libertarian	2,246	2.47	+2.47
YUNIS, Reem	Victorian Socialists	1,529	1.68	+1.68
BERGWERF, Darren	Independent	4,315	4.74	+0.88
BRESKIN, Alex	The Greens	5,798	6.36	-3.98
McKENZIE, Heath	Australian Democrats	1,242	1.36	+1.36
BELYEA, Jodie	Australian Labor Party	37,418	41.07	+0.84	Elected
......	Liberal Democratic Party	0	0.00	-2.51
......	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	0	0.00	-2.81
......	Australian Federation Party	0	0.00	-0.59
......	United Australia Party	0	0.00	-5.06
Formal		91,112	95.86	+0.59
Informal		3,930	4.14	-0.59
Total		95,042

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of first preference votes received by vote type for the division.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
These results are final.

First preferences by vote type
Candidate	Party	Ordinary		Absent		Provisional		Declaration pre-poll		Postal		Total		Status
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Status
CONROY, Nathan	Liberal	27,931	38.18	0	0.00	85	34.55	42	41.18	7,688	43.68	35,746	39.23
CURRIE, Bronwyn	Animal Justice Party	2,110	2.88	0	0.00	9	3.66	1	0.98	698	3.97	2,818	3.09
ABRAHAM, Chrysten	Libertarian	1,984	2.71	0	0.00	12	4.88	1	0.98	249	1.41	2,246	2.47
YUNIS, Reem	Victorian Socialists	1,365	1.87	0	0.00	10	4.07	4	3.92	150	0.85	1,529	1.68
BERGWERF, Darren	Independent	3,678	5.03	0	0.00	17	6.91	4	3.92	616	3.50	4,315	4.74
BRESKIN, Alex	The Greens	4,870	6.66	0	0.00	22	8.94	6	5.88	900	5.11	5,798	6.36
McKENZIE, Heath	Australian Democrats	1,036	1.42	0	0.00	6	2.44	2	1.96	198	1.12	1,242	1.36
BELYEA, Jodie	Australian Labor Party	30,188	41.26	0	0.00	85	34.55	42	41.18	7,103	40.35	37,418	41.07	Elected
Formal		73,162	95.42	0	0.00	246	96.85	102	94.44	17,602	97.77	91,112	95.86
Informal		3,515	4.58	0	0.00	8	3.15	6	5.56	401	2.23	3,930	4.14
Total		76,677	80.68	0	0.00	254	0.27	108	0.11	18,003	18.94	95,042	83.79

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of two candidate preferred (TCP) votes received by vote type for the division.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
These results are final.

Two candidate preferred result by vote type
Candidate	Party	Ordinary		Absent		Provisional		Declaration pre-poll		Postal		Total		Status
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Status
CONROY, Nathan	Liberal	34,129	46.65	0	0.00	124	50.41	46	45.10	8,794	49.96	43,093	47.30
BELYEA, Jodie	Australian Labor Party	39,033	53.35	0	0.00	122	49.59	56	54.90	8,808	50.04	48,019	52.70	Elected

This table provides a list of the polling places in the division and the time and date of the most recent updated results for that polling place.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers and you can find polling place results by selecting on the name of the polling place.

Notes:

These results are final.

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for each polling place in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers and you can find polling place results by selecting on the name of the polling place.

Notes:

Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
These results are final.

Two candidate preferred by polling place
Polling place	Formal	BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party		CONROY, Nathan Liberal		Swing
Polling place	Formal	Votes	%	Votes	%	Swing
Carrum Downs	1,545	854	55.28	691	44.72	-6.91
Carrum Downs Central	1,916	1,149	59.97	767	40.03	-1.71
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC	12,363	6,504	52.61	5,859	47.39	-4.02
Carrum Downs North	2,160	1,132	52.41	1,028	47.59	-3.44
Carrum Downs South	913	512	56.08	401	43.92	-6.58
Carrum Downs West	347	190	54.76	157	45.24	-1.10
EAV Dunkley PPVC	8	4	50.00	4	50.00	0.00
Frankston	1,695	978	57.70	717	42.30	-0.15
Frankston Central	1,420	809	56.97	611	43.03	-3.08
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC	11,979	6,390	53.34	5,589	46.66	-4.44
Frankston East	1,392	786	56.47	606	43.53	-2.39
Frankston Heights	1,326	767	57.84	559	42.16	-2.70
Frankston Heights East	1,328	713	53.69	615	46.31	-5.05
Frankston North	1,217	721	59.24	496	40.76	-5.18
Frankston Rail	1,130	713	63.10	417	36.90	-4.04
Frankston South	1,330	719	54.06	611	45.94	0.31
Frankston South East	1,989	964	48.47	1,025	51.53	-2.87
Frankston South West	1,414	690	48.80	724	51.20	-1.77
Karingal	1,553	912	58.73	641	41.27	-5.76
Karingal Central	848	487	57.43	361	42.57	-7.59
Karingal Heights	1,472	890	60.46	582	39.54	-1.58
Langwarrin	2,454	1,200	48.90	1,254	51.10	-4.98
Langwarrin Central	1,940	963	49.64	977	50.36	-4.42
Langwarrin North	1,396	702	50.29	694	49.71	-5.57
Langwarrin Park	1,979	1,055	53.31	924	46.69	-1.03
Mount Eliza	1,365	597	43.74	768	56.26	-0.63
Mount Eliza Central	621	240	38.65	381	61.35	0.70
Mount Eliza North	578	266	46.02	312	53.98	-10.25
Mount Eliza PPVC	4,360	1,912	43.85	2,448	56.15	-4.77
Mount Eliza South	1,425	692	48.56	733	51.44	-1.07
Mount Eliza West	906	423	46.69	483	53.31	-1.64
Other Mobile Team 1	0	0	0.00	0	0.00	-53.06
Seaford	1,405	884	62.92	521	37.08	-0.38
Seaford East	1,613	953	59.08	660	40.92	-2.70
Seaford North	1,101	643	58.40	458	41.60	-3.60
Seaford South	1,247	812	65.12	435	34.88	1.90
Skye	1,097	637	58.07	460	41.93	-0.52
Special Hospital Team 1	120	60	50.00	60	50.00	-3.54
Special Hospital Team 2	85	45	52.94	40	47.06	-0.68
Special Hospital Team 3	125	65	52.00	60	48.00	-1.27
ABSENT	0	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
PRE_POLL	102	56	54.90	46	45.10	0.00
POSTAL	17,602	8,808	50.04	8,794	49.96	0.00
PROVISIONAL	246	122	49.59	124	50.41	0.00
Division Total	91,112	48,019	52.70	43,093	47.30	-3.57

This table provides the full distribution of preferences by count for the division. The data includes the number and percentage of votes for each candidate at each count.

Notes:

These results are final.

Full distribution of preferences
Count	CONROY Nathan (LP)		CURRIE Bronwyn (AJP)		ABRAHAM Chrysten (LTP)		YUNIS Reem (VNS)		BERGWERF Darren (IND)		BRESKIN Alex (GVIC)		MCKENZIE Heath (AUD)		BELYEA Jodie (ALP)		Total
Count	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Total
First	35,746	39.23	2,818	3.09	2,246	2.47	1,529	1.68	4,315	4.74	5,798	6.36	1,242	1.36	37,418	41.07	91,112
Second	187	15.06	347	27.94	68	5.48	44	3.54	186	14.98	158	12.72	Excluded		252	20.29	1,242
Total	35,933	39.44	3,165	3.47	2,314	2.54	1,573	1.73	4,501	4.94	5,956	6.54			37,670	41.34	91,112
Third	95	6.04	219	13.92	114	7.25	Excluded		181	11.51	761	48.38			203	12.91	1,573
Total	36,028	39.54	3,384	3.71	2,428	2.66			4,682	5.14	6,717	7.37			37,873	41.57	91,112
Fourth	1,087	44.77	319	13.14	Excluded				590	24.30	172	7.08			260	10.71	2,428
Total	37,115	40.74	3,703	4.06					5,272	5.79	6,889	7.56			38,133	41.85	91,112
Fifth	608	16.42	Excluded						908	24.52	1,371	37.02			816	22.04	3,703
Total	37,723	41.40							6,180	6.78	8,260	9.07			38,949	42.75	91,112
Sixth	2,949	47.72							Excluded		2,132	34.50			1,099	17.78	6,180
Total	40,672	44.64									10,392	11.41			40,048	43.95	91,112
Seventh	2,421	23.30									Excluded				7,971	76.70	10,392
Total	43,093	47.30													48,019	52.70	91,112
															Elected

This table provides the number and percentage of preferences to each two candidate preferred (TCP) candidate. The data includes which other candidate the preferences came from.

Notes:

Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
These results are final.

Two candidate preferred preference flow
Candidate	Party	CONROY, Nathan Liberal		BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Votes	%
CURRIE, Bronwyn	Animal Justice Party	1,032	36.62	1,786	63.38
ABRAHAM, Chrysten	Libertarian	1,651	73.51	595	26.49
YUNIS, Reem	Victorian Socialists	352	23.02	1,177	76.98
BERGWERF, Darren	Independent	2,848	66.00	1,467	34.00
BRESKIN, Alex	The Greens	909	15.68	4,889	84.32
McKENZIE, Heath	Australian Democrats	555	44.69	687	55.31
First Preferences		35,746	48.86	37,418	51.14
Total		43,093	47.30	48,019	52.70

Profile of division of Dunkley (VIC)
Elected member	Belyea, J (ALP). Elected 2024.
Name derivation	Named in honour of Louisa Margaret Dunkley, 1866-1927. Dunkley was a union leader and feminist who founded the Victorian Women's Post and Telegraph Association in 1900 and campaigned for equal pay for women.
First proclaimed / election	2021/1984
Area	153 sq. kms
Demographic	Outer Metropolitan
Pre-Election seat status	Fairly Safe
Seat status	Marginal
Location	The Division of Dunkley consists of Frankston City Council and part of the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council.
Products and Industry

Polling place	Street address	First preference returned	Two candidate preferred (TCP) returned
Carrum Downs	Banyan Fields Primary School, 90 Cadles Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Mon, 18 Mar 2024 1:34:44 PM AEDT	Mon, 18 Mar 2024 1:34:44 PM AEDT
Carrum Downs Central	Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 2:24:48 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 2:24:48 PM AEDT
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC	Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Thu, 07 Mar 2024 4:14:34 PM AEDT	Thu, 07 Mar 2024 4:14:34 PM AEDT
Carrum Downs North	Carrum Downs Secondary College, 263 McCormicks Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 11:37:22 AM AEDT	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 11:37:22 AM AEDT
Carrum Downs South	Rowellyn Park Primary School, 15 Rowellyn Ave, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 12:36:27 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 12:36:27 PM AEDT
Carrum Downs West	1st Carrum Downs Scout Hall, 3 Arbor Way, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 9:52:24 AM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 9:52:24 AM AEDT
EAV Dunkley PPVC	AEC National EAV Centre, 10 Mort St, CANBERRA ACT 2601	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 3:56:12 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 3:56:12 PM AEDT
Frankston	Overport Primary School, 56A Towerhill Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 10:46:57 AM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 10:46:57 AM AEDT
Frankston Central	Frankston Primary School, 40 Davey St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 1:30:40 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 1:30:40 PM AEDT
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC	Functions By The Bay, Cnr Plowman Pl and Young St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:23:52 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:23:52 PM AEDT
Frankston East	John Paul College, 161 McMahons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 4:53:40 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 4:53:40 PM AEDT
Frankston Heights	Frankston Heights Primary School, 10 Kalmia St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:26:49 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:26:49 PM AEDT
Frankston Heights East	Kingsley Park Primary School, 70-86 Franciscan Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Tue, 19 Mar 2024 2:09:58 PM AEDT	Tue, 19 Mar 2024 2:09:58 PM AEDT
Frankston North	Aldercourt Primary School, 14B Silver Ave, FRANKSTON NORTH VIC 3200	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:29:16 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:29:16 PM AEDT
Frankston Rail	Chisholm Institute (Frankston Campus), 25 Fletcher Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:32:25 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:32:25 PM AEDT
Frankston South	Derinya Primary School, 119 Overport Rd, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:54:52 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:54:52 AM AEDT
Frankston South East	Mount Erin Secondary College, 43 Robinsons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Tue, 19 Mar 2024 2:25:29 PM AEDT	Tue, 19 Mar 2024 2:25:29 PM AEDT
Frankston South West	Baden Powell Scout Hall, U1 77R Baden Powell Dr, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:25:55 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:25:55 AM AEDT
Karingal	Frankston East Primary School, 6A Ashleigh Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Mon, 18 Mar 2024 3:58:52 PM AEDT	Mon, 18 Mar 2024 3:58:52 PM AEDT
Karingal Central	McClelland Secondary College, 31 Belar Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:35:22 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:35:22 PM AEDT
Karingal Heights	Karingal Heights Primary School, 12 Havana Cres, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 1:19:41 PM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 1:19:41 PM AEDT
Langwarrin	Elisabeth Murdoch College, 80 Warrandyte Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 12:17:48 PM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 12:17:48 PM AEDT
Langwarrin Central	Langwarrin Public Hall, 2/183 Cranbourne-Frankston Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:38:02 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:38:02 PM AEDT
Langwarrin North	Woodlands Primary School, 10 Gum Nut Dr, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:40:41 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:40:41 PM AEDT
Langwarrin Park	Langwarrin Park Primary School, 19-27 Northgateway, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:43:11 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:43:11 PM AEDT
Mount Eliza	Mount Eliza Secondary College, 204 Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:45:24 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:45:24 PM AEDT
Mount Eliza Central	Mount Eliza Fifty Five Plus Club, 90B Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:32:54 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:32:54 AM AEDT
Mount Eliza North	Mount Eliza North Primary School, 6 Moseley Dr, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:15:07 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:15:07 AM AEDT
Mount Eliza PPVC	1st Ranelagh Scout Group, 4 Ranelagh Dr, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:19:41 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:19:41 PM AEDT
Mount Eliza South	Mount Eliza Primary School, 1 Wooralla Dr, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:56:54 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:56:54 AM AEDT
Mount Eliza West	Kunyung Primary School, 50 Kunyung Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930	Tue, 05 Mar 2024 2:40:33 PM AEDT	Tue, 05 Mar 2024 2:40:33 PM AEDT
Other Mobile Team 1	Nairm Marr Djambana, 32 Nursery Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:53:56 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 10:53:56 AM AEDT
Seaford	Seaford Primary School, 10 McRae St, SEAFORD VIC 3198	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 10:21:18 AM AEDT	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 10:21:18 AM AEDT
Seaford East	Belvedere Park Primary School, 30 Belvedere Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:10:00 PM AEDT	Wed, 20 Mar 2024 5:10:00 PM AEDT
Seaford North	Seaford North Primary School, 81 Hallifax St, SEAFORD VIC 3198	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 9:42:18 AM AEDT	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 9:42:18 AM AEDT
Seaford South	Kananook Primary School, 22 Wells Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 9:24:55 AM AEDT	Thu, 21 Mar 2024 9:24:55 AM AEDT
Skye	Skye Primary School, 395 Ballarto Rd, SKYE VIC 3977	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:52:29 AM AEDT	Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:52:29 AM AEDT
Special Hospital Team 1	Multiple sites, VIC	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:20:59 AM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:20:59 AM AEDT
Special Hospital Team 2	Multiple sites, VIC	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:17:06 AM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:17:06 AM AEDT
Special Hospital Team 3	Multiple sites, VIC	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:25:52 AM AEDT	Sun, 03 Mar 2024 10:25:52 AM AEDT

Dunkley, VIC

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Dunkley (VIC)